WASHINGTON — The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders, scrambling
for a backup plan to rescue their health care legislation if Republicans win the
special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday, are preparing to ask House
Democrats to approve the Senate version of the bill, which would send the
measure directly to President
Obama for his signature.
A victory by the Republican, Scott
Brown, in Massachusetts, would deny Democrats the 60th vote they need in the
Senate to surmount Republican filibusters
and advance the health legislation. And with the race too close to call,
Democrats are mulling several options to save the bill, which could be a major
factor in how they fare in this yearfs midterm elections.
Some Democrats suggested that even if their candidate, Martha
Coakley, eked out a narrow victory on Tuesday, they might need to ask House
Democrats to speed the legislation to the presidentfs desk, especially if
lawmakers who previously supported the bill begin to waver as they consider the
political implications of a tough re-election cycle. It is unclear if
rank-and-file Democrats would go along.
Even as Democratic leaders pondered their contingency plans, the House
speaker, Nancy
Pelosi, insisted that the health care legislation would move forward one way
or another, though she acknowledged that Tuesdayfs results could force a
tactical shift.
gCertainly the dynamic will change depending on what happens in
Massachusetts,h Ms. Pelosi told reporters in California on Monday. gJust the
question of how we would proceed. But it doesnft mean we wonft have a health
care bill.h
gLetfs remove all doubt,h she added. gWe will have health care one way or
another.h
Still, some lawmakers, Congressional aides and lobbyists described numerous
obstacles to the Housefs approving the Senate-passed bill.
House Democrats have voiced a number of complaints with the Senate measure,
and top White House officials and Congressional leaders have struggled to bridge
differences between the two bills. And despite promises by Mr. Obama and
Congressional leaders to add those hard-fought agreements and other changes
later, there would be no guarantees.
In an interview on Monday, Representative Bart
Stupak, Democrat of Michigan, who opposes the Senate bill because of
provisions related to insurance coverage of abortions, said: gHouse members will
not vote for the Senate bill. Therefs no interest in that.h
When the idea was suggested at a meeting of the House Democratic Caucus last
week, Mr. Stupak said, gIt went over like a lead balloon.h
gWhy would any House member vote for the Senate bill, which is loaded with
special-interest provisions for certain states?h Mr. Stupak asked. gThatfs not
health care.h
In addition to his complaints about the abortion
provisions, Mr. Stupak said the Senate bill does not do enough to improve the
quality of health care, and it preserves the federal antitrust exemption for health
insurance, which would be repealed under the House bill.
Officials at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue emphasized that the backup plan
was hypothetical, and that they hoped it would never be needed.
Many Democrats, eager to exude confidence, declined to comment publicly on
the possibility of a Plan B. But Republicans said they expected Democrats to do
whatever necessary to get the bill through.
gThey are going to try every way, shape and form to shove this bill down the
throats of the American people,h the House Republican leader, Representative John
A. Boehner of Ohio, said in a radio interview on Monday.
Convincing House Democrats to adopt the bill approved by the Senate on
Christmas Eve would obviate the need for an additional Senate vote. Although
there would probably be enough time for Democrats to rush a bill through the
Senate before Mr. Brown was sworn in, Democratic leaders have essentially ruled
that out as a politically perilous option that could risk a serious public
relations problem.
But asking House Democrats to adopt the Senate bill is itself the sort of
high-risk audible that a coach calls only when the clock has run out and the
entire season is on the line. Agreements that had been carefully forged over the
last few days to bridge differences between the two bills would essentially be
out the window.
The White House and labor unions, for instance, reached a tentative deal last
week on an excise tax on high-priced, employer-sponsored insurance plans. Labor
groups, an important segment of the Democratic
Partyfs base, strongly opposed the version of the tax included in the Senate
bill because they said it would hit too many union-sponsored health plans and
hurt middle-class workers.
And then there are an array of outstanding issues on which no consensus has
been reached, like the emotionally charged issue of insurance coverage for
abortions.
The House bill was passed, 220 to 215, in November. The restrictions on
abortion coverage were approved, 240 to 194, with support from 64 Democrats,
including 41 who also voted for passage of the bill.
The House Republican whip, Representative Eric
Cantor of Virginia, said he had identified 11 gpro-life House Democratsh
whose votes gcould be in playh if the abortion restrictions were weakened.
There are other disagreements.
Members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, for example, strongly oppose a
provision in the Senate bill that would bar illegal immigrants from buying
health insurance through new government-regulated exchanges, or marketplaces,
even if they could afford to pay the full cost with their own money. The House
bill would permit illegal immigrants to buy coverage on their own.
Congressional aides and lobbyists pointed out several other obstacles to
persuading House Democrats to approve the Senate bill.
If the Massachusetts race is seen as a referendum on the health care issue,
many rank-and-file Democrats could be wary of defying public sentiment. And
while many Democrats have recently expressed a desire to finish the health care
legislation and move on, the prospect of needing future changes to the Senate
bill would potentially drag out the health care issue for many more months.
In addition, if Democrats use a budget bill as the vehicle for fixing health
care legislation, Republicans could challenge health policy provisions on the
ground that they had no impact on federal spending or revenues. Eric M. Ueland,
a lobbyist who used to work for the Senate Republican leadership, described the
uncertainty surrounding a two-bill strategy this way: gItfs tantamount to the
Senate saying to the House, eWe cannot tell you what, when, why or how, but
trust us, it will all work out.f h
Ms. Pelosi, however, said that it was Republicans who could not be trusted on
the health care issue, and that Democrats would not squander the opportunity to
pass a bill.
gI heard the candidate in Massachusetts, the Republican candidate, say eLetfs
go back to the drawing board,f h Ms. Pelosi said. gThe drawing board for
the Republican
Party on health care is to tear it up and throw it away and shred it and
never revisit it.h
She added: gBack to the drawing board means a great big zero for the American
people.h